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Patch 2 and Player Progression: Testing Results


billharris44

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One of the volunteer testers ran a 20-season dynasty to see how EA has modified player progression with the second patch. Here are the results:

Look at this comparison of the range of the Top 30 leaders after 2004 and 2025 with the pre-patch definitions, then with Patch 2.

Hitting--

Batting Average: .360 to .302; 344 to .291 (only 16 players over .300). PATCH 2: .336 to .296 (23 over .300)

Home Runs: 52 to 30; 38 to 22 (only 3 players over 30 HR). PATCH 2: 48 to 30 (4 above 35)

RBI's: 129 to 94; 100 to 71. PATCH 2: 128 to 78

Stolen Bases: 59 to 14; 22 to 8. PATCH 2: 22 to 8

Runs Scored: 121 to 97; 104 to 77. PATCH 2: 114 to 80

Pitching--

ERA (starting pitchers): 2.43 to 3.55; 1.68 to 2.62 (4 under 2.00) . PATCH 2: 1.66 to 2.98

Batting Average Against: 218 to .257; .205 to .243. PATCH 2: .216 to .250

Strikeouts: 225 to 167; 187 to 157. PATCH 2: 196 to 156

I think you can either say the glass is half-empty or half-full here. The positive part is that they did appear to do something, and while they're not maintaining 2004 averages, the stats aren't totally collapsing like they did pre-patch. Also, you'll see plenty of +7 and +8 skill progressions after spring training.

The negative is they didn't go nearly far enough and they also didn't address speed, which was the single biggest error of the existing player creation defintions. I also think they didn't understand that the skill levels of created rookies was as much a problem as the player progression system, and they don't appear to have addressed that at all.

The other good news is that since these changes don't seem too sizable, the existing player progression mod will probably work fine. It might even work better. That's being tested now.

I estimate it will take 2-3 days to give you some detailed information, but it appears that balancing for the patch should be relatively easy.

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Thanks Bill.

I posted about this on the other forum, I had simmed 20 seasons w/ the patch (Rod data3) and here are the results i got.

Avg .342 to .294 (17 over .300)

HR 34 to 21 ( 3 over 30 )

RBI 96 to 69 ( 3 over 90 )

Runs 108 to 77 ( 5 over 100 )

ERA 1.65 to 2.69 ( 3 under 2.00 )

Ks 200 to 155

BAA .196 to .244

I know the process can be time consuming and I hope anothe line of input can help.

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Okay guys, here's an update. In what I can only describe as bizarrely lucky, the patch actually IMPROVES the mod without me making any changes at all. Here are league leaders after 50 seasons with the mod:

Top 30 range:

BA: .347 to .307

Home Runs: 45 to 31

RBI's: 130 to 97

Stolen Bases: 31 to 18

Runs Scored: 141 to 100

ERA: 2.60 to 3.85

BA Against: .226 to .259

Strikeouts: 204 to 150

There are several surprising things here. With the original mod pre-patch, offense dropped off between seasons 40-50 to a small degree, but using the mod post-patch there's no dropoff. Stolen bases are an engine issue (I can increase steals as high as I want, but I can't increase the successful percentage, so I have to compromise). Strikeouts are also a known limitation. However, overall after 50 seasons I am really, really pleased with the stats, at least with the testing that has been done so far.

The other thing I didn't like about the pre-patch ratings after 50 years were that players had such low potential when created that almost no one would have contact/power ratings in the 90's. Well, not any more. So that's taken care of as well.

All in all, the patch does a bunch of things to make the mod work better. Heh. :mrgreen:

For now, I haven't changed a single setting, and I may not. Testing is continuing, but things are looking really, really good right now.

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pfunk, I think I'd use the patch 2 rookie.big file. I made a few small adjustments to the retirement rolls in that file, but that was it, so using the patched version is fine.

The modded progress.big still works very well, so I'd recommend using that. If I do make any changes, it will probably be another 2-3 days before I roll them out. Any improvements would not be major, though, because the stats look very good with the original mod definitions, as far as I can tell.

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Sounds like great news bill. I have gotten a little use of the patch as I've been busy, but between it, your mod and the impending rosters it should be a fun summer...if I ever get time.

Keep us up to date!

-Nick

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I think in another 2-3 days I'll be able to release a v2. Some adjustments are being tested tonight.

My goal is to have the major league totals (Runs, HR, 2B, 3B, BB, SO) within 5% of actual MLB totals for 2003 after 50 seasons. Home runs may wind up slightly higher to compensate for the CPU not generating runs very efficiently based on total bases.

Steals are always going to be lower, because there's no way to link aggressivenes to speed. You can only link it by position.

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Any word on version 2?

Also, does anyone have any datafile/slider suggestions based on the patch. I tried Rodkey v4 but it seemed a bit extreme for games you actually play.

Maybe he had slider settings I'm not aware of that would help what I was seeing.

Later,

Nick

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This is probably the final update before release. Someone's running seasons 41-60 for me to be sure the stats are totally stable, but here's the difference between the 2044 save file and actual 2003 MLB totals:

Real MLB 2003, Season Save 2044

HR 5209, 5696 (9.3%)

2B 8827, 9957 (8.2%)

3B 934, 968 (3.6%)

Runs 22978, 21931 (-4.5%)

Home runs and 2B are slightly elevated to keep run production within 5%, because if runs drop any further, the pitching stats are really distorted over time. The AI isn't as efficient at producing runs based on total bases as in real life, but then no baseball game is, so that's not a knock.

Offensive stats are higher than this for the first twenty years because the default rosters plus the revised progression AI in patch 2 are a little offense-intensive. However, I believe that GeForce22's rosters will probably eliminate that.

I haven't totaled BB and SO for a couple of revs, but there were fine two days ago and I expect them to be within 5-7% as well.

So we're looking a release within 1-2 days unless something strange happens in the extra 20 seasons we're simming.

League leaders look fine as well. SO and SB leaders will be slightly down, which is an engine function that can't be changed without undesirable side effects. The others look excellent.

All in all, I think this is a significant improvement from v1. The improved progression rates produced by the patch made it possible to make this quite a bit more accurate.

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Okay guys, I've still got a few categories to total, but I was primarily watching home runs from seasons 40-60, and they only went up 2%, so I think this is probably going to be the release version. I've still got to write a readme for this version and finishing tallying up all league totals, but it should be available tomorrow.

This version is going to be more accurate than V1, both at the league total and league leader level as well as with individual player ratings (more position players with ratings in the 90's after fifty seasons, more players with multiple hot zones, etc.). I'm really happy with how this turne dout.

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John, I've made a couple of minor changes to bring down Home Runs slightly and increase strikeouts slightly. I'm going to try to test them later today and that will probably be the release version. The changes will only be in the 1-2% range--I'm just anal retentive. LOL. :banghead:

That's a great screen name by the way. Wallace and Gromit rule. :mrgreen:

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Hi Bill,

First I want to say thanks to you and your team of testers for going thru all of this for the MVP community!

A quick question...you mention in oen of your earlier posts about hitters having "..more hot zones...".

Can I interpret this to mean that while computer created rookies start with the same hot/cold zones, over time (many seasons) those hot/cold zones change? If so does this include their individual spray charts as well? And lastly how many seasons does it take for this change to take place?

Thanks a bunch

Daniel

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Daniel, I can answer almost anything about player progression, but I'm not nearly as familiar with player creation. I tried making some changes in the rookie.big file when I first started modding, but changes in that file don't seem to have an effect, as far as I can tell. It's very odd.

In regards to your question, I see more players with higher ratings over time than pre-patch, so there will be more hot zones, I believe. However, in question to how they're allocated, I can't answer you. I assume if a guy is created with a 30 power rating and one hot zone, and over time his power rating grows to 90, then he'll have more hot zones, but I can't say that definitively because I've never researched it.

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