Player Progression Mod V2 Uploaded

[billharris44]

Finally.

I uploaded it as progress.zip. I didn't get prompted for a name, so I asked Snepp to list it as 'Player Progression Mod V2 May 15.'

Here's a snip from the readme if you want to know what you're getting into:

"Discussion of Changes and Statistical Stability Over Time

EA's second patch improved the yearly progression rate substantially. This made it possible to fine-tune the mod and make it even more accurate over time. There are approximately 4,200 different values defining player progression, and about 1,500 were changed. The mod (both versions) has been tested over the course of approximately 1,250 simmed seasons. If you'd like a detailed description of what was changed and why, refer to the V1 readme below.

There were some design designs I made to balance various statistics as well as possible. Primarily, the game engine does not manufacture runs as efficiently as in real major league baseball. This is not surprising--almost no baseball game does--but preserving the league run totals is important, because pitching statistics will be off significantly over time if run totals decline. So to balance among various statistics as much as possible, with a 10% variance defined as allowable, I increased HR, 2B, and BB. These increases will not be reflected in the league leaders, because the top end was left unchanged. It was the middle and lower power pools that were slightly increased. It's not something you would even notice unless you were manually tallying league totals.

You can see how it looks over time below.

Please note that the seasons refer to the following (all statistics listed are league totals):

MLB 2003--real MLB 2003 stats.

EA 2004--the results of the first season in a dynasty, before the mod runs (it runs during spring training, which doesn't happen in a dynasty until the second season).

2024 (Mod)--the results of the 20th season in a dynasty using the v2 player progression mod.

2044 (Mod)--the results of the 40th season in a dynasty using the v2 player progression mod.

2064 (Mod)--the results of the 60th season in a dynasty using the v2 player progression mod.

2084 (Mod)--the results of the 80th season in a dynasty using the v2 player progression mod.

Here are the results:

STAT: MLB2003, EA2004, 2024(M),2044(M),2064(M),2084(MOD)

HR: 5209, 5208, 5776, 5837, 5736, 5742

2B: 8827, 9422, 9516, 9507, 9627, 9460

3B: 934, 767, 892, 1007, 908, 905

RUNS: 22978, 20279, 21743, 22557, 21630, 21288

BB: 15889, 18519, 16659, 16906, 16914, 16860

SO: 30801, 33172, 31646, 30453, 31486, 31308

SB: 2573, 1517, 2096, 1998, 1944, 1722

If the formatting didn't work, hopefully the commas will help you line everything up properly.

If you look at EA's results for the first year, several things stand out. First, even though Home Runs and 2B are very well done, Runs are almost 12% low. This is a result of the efficiency issue I mentioned earlier. BB are over 16% too high, and 3B are 17% too low. Steals are the most serious problem, with a -40% variance. Now these certainly aren't bad results for a graphics-based game, but this simulation engine is really a jewel--it's far, far more accurate and stable than any iteration of the High Heat sim engine, and that's saying something. So these results can be improved significantly.

If you're wondering how the default engine would look after 20 seasons, it's a mixed bag. I didn't tally league totals (really time consuming, so I did it only for the mod seasons plus the first default season), but there is a substantial power drain and a collapse in league speed--the steals leader in 2024 had 22 steals, and 30th had only 8.

Let's review the mod results. If you look at season 20 results, the mod over time has 'bled off' the unwanted excesses in BB and SO. The excesses in HR, 2B, and BB (10.8%, 7.8%, and 4.8%, respectively) are there to help reduce the total run deficit (-5.37%). Steals are 18% low, but that's discussed at length in the v1 read me--the problem is not generating steals, because any number can be generated, but rather the successful rate of steals, which cannot be adjusted precisely.

At 40 seasons, you can clearly see that the results are extremely stable. There is a 4% increase in runs scored over season 20 and a corresponding 4% reduction in strikeouts, but those will come back to the norms over time. Again, with the exception of Home Runs, which are 12% high to facilitate run production, no other category is more than 7.8% away from real MLB 2003 league totals.

At 60 seasons all stats are still stable. Runs scored and strikeouts have returned to the normal range.

At 80 seasons, with the exception of steals, the league totals are closer to the 2003 MLB totals than at any other point. I did not spend time analyzing the steals decline, and it could be a temporary variation that will come back to the baseline, but it looks like a larger decline than that. However, 3B, where speed also plays a large role, are still stable. With the exception of home runs (10.2% high) and steals, all league totals are with 7.2% of MLB 2003 totals.

We did not test out to 120 seasons, but based on the stability of the first 80 seasons, I strongly believe that you could run a dynasty for the full 120 seasons with no problem.

League leaders were checked periodically and they are excellent throughout the 80-year period. The home run leader in 2084 had 52 home runs. The top 30 in ERA (starting pitchers) will range from 2.4 to 3.8, generally, with an occasional 2.2 thrown in during an exceptional season. Stolen base leaders will decline over time, but you will still see the league leader with 40+ steals quite often. The strikeout leader is one number that will not be as accurately modeled, because the engine makes it very difficult to have more than around 210 strikeouts in a season.

GeForce22 should be releasing his Total Minors rosters any day now (check the forums at MVP Mods or High Heat 2004 Net), and they should work very well with this mod. The initial variance in stats after the first season of a dynasty is a product of the default player ratings (pitcher control is too low, in particular), and the Total Minors roster set should feature much more accurate ratings. The effect of any roster set is going to be around 25 years. At that point, every player in the default rosters will have worked his way through the system. Even after 20 years, as you can see by the league totals in 2024, the stats have stabilized.

This will be the last version of this mod unless they need to be balanced one more time for optimal use with the Total Minors roster set."

[braves baseball]

thanks for all your hard work bill

i appreciate the time you and your 'helpers' have put through this mod in order to make it as accurate as possible

[x94blair3]

Great news! Looking forward to using the mod. It means little, but thanks for all your efforts Bill!

-Nick

[WhiskeyD0G]

Does this player progession mod work for the XBox ?

[billharris44]

WhiskeyDOG, I know some PC mods do work for Xbox, but I have no idea how you'd go about doing it. Sorry.

[Trues]

It's up.

Thanks Bill!

[billharris44]

Thanks, Trues.

[olyrunner]

Bill, with the rookie.big file no longer being used, is it best to copy the original rookie.big file from the CD or is it okay to leave the modded rookie.big file from your previous version?

If we haven't reached the end of the first year in our dynasty, will your new version take effect or do we have to start over?

Thanks for all the great work!

[billharris44]

olyrunner, when you apply the second EA patch, a modified rookie.big will be installed.

You don't want to use either the original rookie.big or my first modded one. This version is tuned with the one from the patch.

[billharris44]

Sorry, missed your second question. Progress.big isn't used by the game until after the first season, when spring training runs for the first time. So you should be able to use it now with no problems.

You could theoretically install it whenever you wanted, even into an existing dynasty that had run multiple seasons, and after about 20 more seasons you'd be getting the standard results, because that would be one full lifecyle of players.

[fuzzone]

hey billy, great work!

<---most people think that when i drop this icon,i'm flirting with them. It's not usually the case even though i've been known to be keyboard flirtatious.

[billharris44]

Thanks for clarifying that, fuzz. :D

[olyrunner]

Thanks Bill. One last thing - do you (or anyone else reading) happen to have a copy of the patch 2 rookie.big file? After I installed the patch I copied your modded version over it thinking it was supposed to go along with your progress.big file. Oops!

Thanks again!

[GoChiefs]

Yeah I need a copy of the patch 2 rookie.big file....I think. Better safe than sorry.

I am glad I can still use this with my already in progress franchise, though.

[billharris44]

just send me your e-mail address to bharris@gonegold.com.

Just be sure you've installed the second patch. Even with the updated rookie.big file, the mod won't work as it should without the player progression update in the .exe file that was installed with the 2nd patch.

[GoChiefs]

ermail sent

[xedef17]

You forgot me in the documentation Bill Mucho thanks for all the hard work though, it really is a great mod

[billharris44]

I did not, Michael. See the excerpt from the readme below. I couldn't forget you--you simmed a ton of seasons.

"2. THANKS TO BETA TESTERS

For the V2 version, the following volunteer testers simmed hundreds of seasons to ensure the mod's stability, and I can't thank them enough: Jason Hodach, Michael (XEDEF17), and John Compton. A special thanks goes out to Paul Costello of Groovalicious Games (www.groovgames.com), who simmed nearly two hundred seasons by himself. The V1 testers are thanked in the V1 readme file, which is attached below."

[xedef17]

Hehe my bad, I spent the day at yankee stadium and was gone for basically 12 hours with driving and stuff, im more than a bit out of it tonight :)

[billharris44]

LOL. So you misread the readme and then you tell me it's because you spent the day at Yankee Stadium? :banghead: :mrgreen:

[xedef17]

Actually, i misread the readme due to exhaustion for spending 6 hours in the car, and another 6 at the game It was a looooong day

[Bill2k]

Um yeah, I was using your mod and simmed about 3/4 of my Red Sox Dynasty and noticed some extremely weird progression. For instance, Manny Ramirez' power went down about 5, yet his speed went up 11?

I also had traded for beltran and he experienced a -3 speed regression and his power also went down.

This is really weird...

[billharris44]

Bill2k, the age of the player is very important. The player progression system, as far as I can tell, is a fairly linear system. Players are going to improve up to age 28. They're going to decline (not all at the same rate) after that. So if Beltran is older than 28, his skills are going to gradually decline.

I'm assuming that the change in Ramirez's stats happened when you ran spring training for the first time. Speed collapses over time with the default player progression created player's system. To counter that, I had to establish mins for speed that were quite a bit higher than the defaults. So if Ramirerez's speed changed the first time you ran spring training, that's part of ever player 'entering' the player progression system.

You'll see more significant ratings changes the first time you run the player progression mod (because every player is encountering the progression definition min/maxes instead of just rookies) than at any other point, particularly if you're using EA's default rosters. With GeForce's I would not expect you to see so many.

If that doesn't cover what happened, or I'm misunderstanding the circumstances, please explain further.

[Bill2k]

Thanks for the answers, I see...Beltran is 27. (BTW I'm using Total Minors 1.11 and your mod ver2 )

I would expect him to be even better next year, but if that's the way your mod works, I understand. I have another question, though...

Is progression based upon their performance?

I mean, if Ramirez has a great season, shouldn't his attributes stay nearly the same or even improve? I'm just saying basically, if I'm breaking records with him, why should he regress after the season?

[billharris44]

If Beltran is 27, then I'm guessing that you ran spring training for the first time when that happened. If not, EA introduced some randomness into the process that I haven't seen before.

Beltran should reach his peak ratings at age 28, so he should improve for one more year.

Progression is not based on performance, as far as I can tell. That has nothing to do with the mod--it's how EA's internal engine handles it.

Here's a little bit about how this works, since you seem interested. There are a ton of ratings and there are three age ranges where you have min/maxes by position and star ratings.

The age ranges are 18, 28 (which I changed from 31), and 44.

So this is what happens. The game creates a player with certain ratings. The first time that player goes through spring training, there's a check to see that all his ratings are inside the min/maxes for age 18 for his position and star ratings.

If any ratings are too low or too high, they are adjusted to fit the min/max. A couple of examples are speed (which is way, way too low for created players, so the progression systems adjusts upwards) and reliever stamina (which is way too high for created players, so the progression mod adjusts it downwards).

If the mod adjusts ratings downwards, it doesn't cost the prospect any potential, which is a hidden number tied to his discipline ratings. It just means he won't reach it as early.

When a player hits 28, he's at his peak. After that, his ratings will gradually begin to decline, although not all ratings and not all at once. Plate discpline, for example, might not decrease at all.

The idea of all players peaking at 28 is unfortunate, but in this engine that's how it works. Our only flexibility is picking the age, and all the studies I've seen say 27.5. Even with that limitation, this is a really deep and complex simulation engine, far beyond any other graphics-based game I've ever seen.

Like I said, it's possible that EA introduced more randomness with the second patch, but as far as I know guys rating's aren't going to improve when they're in their 30's.

If you have any more questions, just let me know.