WinnieThaPujols Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I love MVP; in fact, it's been one of my favorite games. I can't believe I'm still playing it years and years afters its release. One problem I always had with Dynasty Mode, though, was that progression only took place in the offseason! This bothered me immensely. Why is it that teams often wait until mid-summer to call players up? Because they want to give them more time to develop! I wanted to simulate something like that. I took this Spring Break to develop a progression system. Because of opportunities presented by tywiggin's .dat exporter/imported, I was finally able to fix what I thought was a huge flaw of dynasty work. Let's go over some details: The Program The program is DOS-based; you'll have to export stats, run my program, and then import them back in. How it Works Major leaguers and minor leaguers do not progress the same. Major league progression is based on stats; isolated power determines how a player's power progresses... batting average determines how their contact ratings progress. For now, pitcher progression is only going to be based on ERA; I really wanted to incorporate WHIP and other peripheral stats, but I find it way too hard to come to a consensus on what's good or not. What about Yankee fans playing as Wang? Should I stunt his progression just because he had a crappy K / 9, despite his terrific ERA? It just didn't seem right to me. It's much more reasonable to find good settings/sliders for realistic hitting stats than it is for pitching stats, in my experience. For minor leaguers, progress is random -- to an extent. This probably will not please everybody, but I thought it was the best way to go. Minor leaguers are too random to based it on stats; plus, a lot of times stats don't tell the whole story for guys down on the farm. So in theory, there will be times when a player has good stats but still regresses... and vice versa. A minor leaguer's star rating plays the biggest role in their progression; the higher the star rating, the more likely they are to progress in larger increments. - Five/four star prospects: will likely progress - Three/two star prospects: will likely stay the same - One star prospects: will likely regress Note: the operative word is "likely." This does not preclude a five star prospect from staying the same or regressing -- it's just less likely. Stats are not cumulative; the program will store the previous months' stats, and then filter them out the next time the program is ran. This will make "true" month-to-month progression for the major leaguers. The Progression Itself There are seven different types of progression: - Huge Gain - Big Gain - Decent Gain - Marginal Gain - No Change - Small Loss - Big Loss Progression is NOT linear; a "huge" gain for a crappy player will be a lot more significant than an established superstar. When (if) a player achieves high ratings, they're going to have to perform at high standards to keep those ratings. It will be easier for them to drop than it will be for them gain. Similarly, it will be easier for crappy players to gain that it will be for them to drop. You're not going to see superstars develop overnight, though. With major leaguers, progress is hindered if players don't get enough playing time. As I said, it is based on stats. This is to prevent small sample sizes ruining the system; for example: let's say you had a bench player who went 4 - 5 with a huge slugging percentage; their .800 AVG would clearly put that player in line for a huge gain. However, 5 at-bats is not nearly enough, and so most of that gain will be "lost." This will prevent you from manipulating the system. ETA The program is mostly done. I've spent a crapload of time working on it. At this point, all I need to do really is save the changes to the .dat files so that they can be imported (in other words, the program that makes the changes to the ratings is finished -- its just a matter of putting them back in the original files). I don't forsee that taking too long. Future Plans As is, I'm content with the program. I plan on incorporating some things down the line, though; for example, a momentum system. If a player progresses the last month, they're going to be a little bit more likely to progress the next month. Similarly, if a player regresses one month, they're going to be less likely to progress the next month. This will hopefully simulate players breaking out as well as prospects fizzling out. Ideally, it'll make the game more dynamic. I'm also going to make it possible for star ratings to change; I'm thinking of something like: - if a player progress four out of six months with no regression, they'll jump up a star - if a player regresses four out of six months without progression, they'll jump down a star This will, I think, work well in conjunction with the momentum system. Right now, the program does not take age into account. All it looks at is if you're a major or a minor leaguer. What I will probably do is implement something that makes it so old players have to perform better than younger ones to keep their ratings. I hate how in EA Sports games, old players automatically start to suck. If they perform up to high standards they'll keep their ratings with minimal loss; otherwise, they're going to be headed towards retirement! I'm also going to incorporate star rating into the aging system... players who were destined for greatness are going to be able to enjoy longer careers than the lesser-star players. Previews It would be wrong if I didn't tease you guys with some previews; here is what the program looks like: And here's what the output file looks like, post-progression: Guinea Pigs I'm hoping to have a working BETA out in less than a week; it could be out within a couple days, it could be longer than that. It really all depends on how motivated I stay with this; it's been really stressful so far -- a lot of tedious work and bug-finding. With that said, I'd like to have some people run this on their own systems to make sure that it works before I release the BETA. Any takers? I really think the community will enjoy this... but only time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krawhitham Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 put me in coach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pujols Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I'll test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pistonj92 Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I as well. This sound like a neat little mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 By the same, something I realized... every team progresses. That team selection screen at the beginning exists solely to determine what content appears in the output file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshC77 Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Incredible idea. I don't have time to do testing, but wouldn't mind throwing in my 2 cents. For hitters, you may wish to utilize EqA. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). League average EqA is always equal to .260. You could theoretically utilize an EqA of .260 to represent little chance to no chance of progression or regression. Higher EqA's would scale prgression upwards, lower EqA's would scale regression downwards. Also, in your discussion of ISO (which is a good idea), I'd like to add the following thought: The typical formula for ISO (which I only assume that you are using because you didn't specify) is: (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB I would suggest modifying it to ISO = (2B + 3B + (HR*3)) / AB as triples are weighted the same as doubles given that triples are more a function of a player's speed as opposed to raw power. I had a thought on how to handle pitchers, but it would incorporate the use of GB/FB ratio, which I do not think we can pull off from MVP. I would be careful though in utilizing just ERA. ERA incorporates far too many other factors (park effects, team defense, etc.) to be a true indicator of relative pitching ability. But as you said, pitching is very difficult to come up with a good formula for.... Random thought...aren't there rating generators out there that base MVP ratings off of stats...maybe there are some formulai in them that could assist. I'll keep thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InSainn Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I doubt I'd have time to test it, nor do I think I'd know enough about what I'm doing to effectively help but this sounds like it could be one of the best mods to be released (outside of the total conversions) since MVP 05 came out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 I doubt I'd have time to test it, nor do I think I'd know enough about what I'm doing to effectively help but this sounds like it could be one of the best mods to be released (outside of the total conversions) since MVP 05 came out... Thanks for the kind words. Part of the reason I posted a preview of this is because I wanted to gauge the interest in it; hearing stuff like this genuinely motivates me and makes me want to work on it. I would be careful though in utilizing just ERA. ERA incorporates far too many other factors (park effects, team defense, etc.) to be a true indicator of relative pitching ability. But as you said, pitching is very difficult to come up with a good formula for.... Yeah, like I'm saying, the difficulty is only amplified due to the fact that it's much harder to get all-around realistic pitching stats than it is to get realistic hitting stats. Even if there was an accurate barometer set for pitchers, what are the chances people would be able to achieve results like that consistently in the game? I would suggest modifying it to ISO = (2B + 3B + (HR*3)) / AB as triples are weighted the same as doubles given that triples are more a function of a player's speed as opposed to raw power. Great suggestion -- I'll definitely make this change; I'm surprised I haven't heard of this before. For hitters, you may wish to utilize EqA. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). League average EqA is always equal to .260. You could theoretically utilize an EqA of .260 to represent little chance to no chance of progression or regression. Higher EqA's would scale prgression upwards, lower EqA's would scale regression downwards. I'll take this into consideration; at the moment, though, I'm kind of lukewarm to the idea. I don't want to factor in walks to the contact rating, being that there is a plate discipline rating. However, at this point I'm not changing plate discipline, because I don't view it as something that can necessarily fluctuate that much over a career. I view it more of something that's a skill that can't be taught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Totte Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 I'm really impressed man, looks like solid work from scratch. One question that popped into my head was how these progressions interact with the regular MVP off-season progression? Did you disable the old one or do they work hand in hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikey_h99 Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 i like the idea of this program in season progression has been one thing thats bothered me since i got mvp 05 i love the game and playing dynasties but accurate progression is a must id be willing to try this out for u as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted March 7, 2008 Author Share Posted March 7, 2008 I'm really impressed man, looks like solid work from scratch. One question that popped into my head was how these progressions interact with the regular MVP off-season progression? Did you disable the old one or do they work hand in hand? This is a good question that I obviously had to take into consideration. The solution was pretty simple: during the offseason, you'll go right up to the point that before progression is about to take place. At this point, you'll export the .dat files; you'll then go back into the game, run the progression, and then import the old ratings. The net result is the equivalent of the MVP progression never taking place. What I've yet to decide is whether or not there will be year-end progression; in other words, in addition to the monthly progression, will there be a cumulative progression at the end of the year? I have no idea how EA's progression system works. I think it's disgustingly random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Totte Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 The solution was pretty simple: during the offseason, you'll go right up to the point that before progression is about to take place. At this point, you'll export the .dat files; you'll then go back into the game, run the progression, and then import the old ratings. The net result is the equivalent of the MVP progression never taking place. Seems like you've thought of everything... ... good job man! What I've yet to decide is whether or not there will be year-end progression; in other words, in addition to the monthly progression, will there be a cumulative progression at the end of the year? I have no idea how EA's progression system works. I think it's disgustingly random. I think it'd be good to have a year-end progression that comes right after the regular season. Doesn't matter if you do one after the WS if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xiberger Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Looks very promising. Good luck with the project! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronmexico Posted March 7, 2008 Share Posted March 7, 2008 Instead of going through all that, I can whip you up a progression mod where the players progress 0 in the offseason for everyone, so that way only your program will affect their progression. Sounds good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted March 8, 2008 Author Share Posted March 8, 2008 Instead of going through all that, I can whip you up a progression mod where the players progress 0 in the offseason for everyone, so that way only your program will affect their progression. Sounds good? Wow, that is a great idea. I can't believe I didn't think of this... Are you just going to zero out all the values in the progress.big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshC77 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Great suggestion -- I'll definitely make this change; I'm surprised I haven't heard of this before. I can't take credit....check out www.baseballprospectus.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SESbb30 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 ill test if ya still need testers! this is an awesome idea btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SESbb30 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 wait, if you import the old .dat files over the one in the dynasty after the post season progression, wouldnt the retirements and everything be overwritten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kabiff123 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 the off-season progression happens before the new season starts. he's saying you'd export them just before the regular season (after retirements have happened) and then import them on the first day of the new season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted March 14, 2008 Author Share Posted March 14, 2008 I have this weekend off, so I'm finally going to resume working on this. I've been swamped lately. If all goes well I'll have a beta sometime this weekend, but no guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conception Posted March 16, 2008 Share Posted March 16, 2008 This is a sweet idea. I hope you finish it because it really would revolutionize MVP gameplay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted March 21, 2008 Author Share Posted March 21, 2008 OK, another update: I'm at the point know where I've been able to code the program to generate the new .dat files; in other words, after the information is processed and the new ratings are calculated, they need to be put back into the original files that they came from. I've done that. At this point I'm having difficulties getting them to work with the Attribute Updater program; I had the batting ratings imported, but the pitching ones doesn't seem to want to comply. In any event, this was the first time in a week or two that I had worked on this program so I'm finally back on track! I made some nice progress today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted March 29, 2008 Author Share Posted March 29, 2008 I wanted to release a beta a long time ago, but just as I was about to release one I realize that I needed to have a lot more progress -- otherwise, the people that tested it wouldn't be able to do anything with it! In other words, it only worked for one month, but I need it to work for at least a whole season for anyone to do anything. Something concrete is ready to be released for testing pretty soon. Seriously. I know I've said that a lot, but I really want to try and get something out there soon. I'm swamped with work next week, but I'm sure I can find time sometime... I was actually going to release something tonight, until I gave it one last run through: Either Ankiel really struggled, or something's wrong. I really bit off more than I can chew, but I do want to get something done... and soon. I really wanted to be done with this by opening day but I guess I drastically underestimated what kind of task this was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angryrat Posted March 29, 2008 Share Posted March 29, 2008 did it reverse ankiels values? Maybe his actual power is 81, and he wasn't supposed to lose any at all, but they are in the wrong position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinnieThaPujols Posted April 2, 2008 Author Share Posted April 2, 2008 Alright, I decided to release a beta. Make no mistake -- this is pretty much unusable at this point. There are still a lot of features that need to be implemented (see the readme), and there is still a ton of tweaking that needs to be done. With that said, you can, following the instructions in the readme, sim a full season and see how the mod will work. On the run I tried out, Wainwright had an awesome year (sub-3.00 ERA) and basically turned into a beast. He was 90's in all of his pitches. It was really cool to see the mod actually have such an extreme effect on someone who had such a great year... it's exactly what I wanted to see. With that said, that's way too dramatic and radical... hence the "I have a lot of tweaking to do" comment, but the idea is there. A lot of the minor leaguers progressed too much, too. But still... a lot of them were rated a lot differently by the end of the year -- I think Colby Rasmus was maybe ready for a role with the big league club by September. I wanted to release something, because I've been saying for ages that I'd get something out there. I will hopefully release something soon that will be able to tell you how much a player progressed over the course of a season -- that will be really helpful in tweaking. Right now, though, just mess around with this and give me some preliminary feedback. Don't expect much. :-P Edit: by the way, I HIGHLY recommend using the D3D Windower [here]. This will allow you to run MVP in windowed mode. It makes using a utility like Project Progression much more tolerable. You can't actually play games using it, but if you're just simming (eg: testing this mod) it's much better this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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